Day 13.2

I'd like to take a time out from discussing my life here in Serbia and talk about whats going on in Iran right now.


The Iranian system is more democratic than many realize. There has been legitimate turnover in the past. Prior to Ahmadinejad, for example, a man named Khatami was president and campaigned on a platform of liberalization and reform. Ahmadinejad, by contrast, has a solid basis in laborers and rural folk. Many young Iranians are fed up with Ahmadinejad's rhetoric and the way in which he has forced Iran back into international isolation. Moreover, he has been unable to deliver on his economic promises. Voter turnout was at 80% and campaigning in the last week was tense. My point is that this is indeed a backlash to what is believed to be a stolen election.

Even if Mr. Moussavi (opposition candidate) did not win the election, it seems unlikely that he lost with the 30 percent margin that the election officials have reported. Moreover, as the video states, the regime is not negotiating with the opposition. This is very dangerous especially in a country facing such economic unrest and with social tensions always lurking right beneath the surface, not to mention the memories of the student revolt under Khomeni.

So far it appears that the news media is doing a fair job reporting this crisis. The main thing to realize is that Iran has a strong semblance of democracy at least where elections are concerned and even though their human rights record is appalling. Consequently, in many ways the outcome of this protest right now will have long term effects upon the regime type within Iran. It seems clear that if Ahmadinejad wishes to retain full control with no cooperation with Mr. Moussavi, he will have to impose something akin to martial law. Once such a step is taken it then can become very tantalizing for those in power to retain it as the status quo.

Conversely, if Ahmadinejad extends a hand of friendship to Mr. Moussavi, it will give the opposition leader a say to some extent in the government. Basically if Iran emerges from this leadership council without imposition of martial law, their structure may very well be vindicated as democratic according to minimalist definitions concerning elections.

I apologize for getting a bit poli sci but I think its important to realize that Iran is not the authoritarian regime that Saudi Arabia. The people are able to elect a president and this is very significant and so very often overlooked by the media.